Copper has spent September breaking every record in sight. The LME cash price hit an all time high of US$14,875 a tonne on 10 September, and Comex futures hit their own record of US$6.83 a pound on 22 September. For Australian investors this is no longer a chart to admire from a distance. A fatal accident and a looming strike vote at the world’s largest copper mine in Chile have collided with a US tariff scramble, and ASX listed producers are being repriced in real time.
A record breaking September for copper prices
Copper is up roughly 18 per cent year to date. According to Bloomberg’s coverage of the rally, the surge reflects genuine demand growth from electrification and AI data centre construction, layered with a policy driven premium as traders rush metal into US warehouses ahead of a possible 15 to 30 per cent tariff on refined copper imports. Comex now holds close to 69 per cent of global exchange copper stocks, while readily available LME inventory has shrunk to as little as 90,000 tonnes.
Escondida halted: a fatality, a suspension and a strike vote
The urgency is coming from BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile, the single largest copper source on the planet. A maintenance worker died on 23 September, and regulator Sernageomin ordered a full suspension; only a partial resumption had begun by 25 September, and the regulator, not BHP, controls the restart timeline. Both the supervisors’ union and rank and file workers rejected BHP’s request to pause bargaining after the accident, and a formal strike vote was set for the week of 28 to 30 September. BHP operates Escondida with Rio Tinto (30 per cent) and Japan’s JECO (12.5 per cent), but is by far the largest ASX company with direct leverage to the outcome.
Tariffs, inventories and copper’s structural deficit
Even before Escondida, the market was grappling with what this site covered in July as copper’s deepening structural deficit, and August’s record highs on tariff hoarding now look like an early warning rather than a peak. Much of today’s premium is policy dependent: if the strike is avoided and the White House softens its stance, stranded US metal could flow back to the LME. Stocks there have already risen roughly 20 per cent since mid August, showing how quickly rebuilding can cool a rally.
Australia’s own copper story: falling output, rising ambition
Domestically, the picture is mixed. Australian copper output is on track to contract for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, after a 3.5 per cent decline in 2025 driven largely by Glencore’s closure of the Mount Isa copper operation. That sits awkwardly beside longer term optimism: the Department of Industry, Science and Resources’ Resources and Energy Quarterly still flags copper as a major export earner, and industry forecasts point to production growing above 8 per cent annually to 2035 as new projects come online. Australia is living through a supply trough just as global prices hit records.
ASX copper stocks in focus
Sandfire Resources delivered FY26 group copper equivalent production of 154,200 tonnes, broadly flat on the prior year, with sales revenue up 41 per cent to $1.654 billion and underlying EBITDA up 64 per cent to $867 million, per its own FY26 results lodged with the ASX. It ended the year with $353 million net cash, declared a 35 cent fully franked final dividend, and guided FY27 production to 150,000 to 166,000 tonnes. 29Metals, producing copper alongside zinc, gold, silver and lead from Golden Grove and Capricorn Copper, sits at the more leveraged end of the sector, echoing volatility already visible across the base metals sector. Capstone Copper, dual listed on the ASX and part of the S&P/ASX 200, offers a diversified option, while BHP’s scale makes Escondida a bellwether worth watching.
What to watch next
- The outcome of the Escondida strike vote in the week of 28 to 30 September, and whether Sernageomin clears a full restart.
- Any White House decision on tariff rates for refined copper imports, which will determine whether US warehousing keeps draining the LME.
- Quarterly production updates from Sandfire Resources and 29Metals, showing whether Australian producers are capturing the current price strength.
- LME and Comex inventory trends, since further stock rebuilding could quickly take pressure off the price premium.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the copper price at record highs in September 2026?
Copper has been pushed to record highs by genuine demand growth from electrification and data centres, combined with a policy driven premium as traders move metal into US warehouses ahead of possible tariffs on refined copper imports. That dynamic has been sharpened by a fatal accident and strike threat at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest copper source, adding fresh supply risk to an already tight market.
Which ASX listed companies give investors exposure to copper?
Sandfire Resources is the most direct pure play, with operations in Botswana and Spain, while 29Metals offers exposure through Golden Grove and Capricorn Copper alongside zinc and precious metals by-products. Capstone Copper holds a secondary ASX listing and S&P/ASX 200 membership, and BHP provides indirect exposure through its majority stake in Escondida.
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