Fresnillo, the world’s largest primary silver producer, reported third quarter silver output of 10.3 million ounces, down 11.6% on the same period last year and 5.5% below the June quarter. The Mexican miner still held its 2026 guidance, but the result adds to a run of grade-driven softness across the sector that ASX silver investors have been watching closely, including at South32’s Cannington mine.
Where the Ounces Went
Lower ore grades at Juanicipio, Saucito and San Julian did most of the damage. Juanicipio fell about 26% year on year to 1.8 million ounces as mine plan changes for ventilation and ground support took effect, while Fresnillo’s namesake mine rose 5% to 2.5 million ounces on better stope grades. Part of the annual decline also reflects the end of the Silverstream contribution, which added 195,000 ounces a year earlier. Gold output slipped 10.7% to 135,000 ounces, with a ball mill stoppage at Herradura a key factor. Nine month silver output now sits at 32.4 million ounces, down 11.5%.
Guidance Leaves Little Room for Error
Management kept full-year silver guidance at 42.0 to 46.5 million ounces. Hitting the bottom of that range needs about 9.6 million ounces in the final quarter, which is roughly in line with the latest result, but the top end looks out of reach on current run rates. CEO Octavio Alvidrez said production was in line with expectations, and a more detailed metal-by-metal update is due with the fourth quarter report. Disruption elsewhere is also tightening supply, as seen in the strike that halted output at Mexico’s San Dimas mine.
What It Means for ASX Silver Investors
Falling output from a producer that supplies roughly 5% of global mined silver is a reminder that grade and mine plan risk apply to the biggest names as well as the juniors. Spot silver was near US$53.77 an ounce on 26 October, more than 20% below its late August high near US$70, so the supply story has not yet translated into price strength. Investors weighing the sector may want to compare the structural picture in our look at the 2026 silver deficit forecast with data from The Silver Institute and benchmark pricing from the London Bullion Market Association. Australian developers such as Silver Mines and Sun Silver stand to benefit if supply keeps tightening, though they carry their own development and funding risks.
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